I’m running out of time to capture a perfect 5–0 weekend during the regular season in the NFL.
I’ve gotten a few 4–1 records for my weekly five best over/under bets—I came close to doing that again in Week 16, but the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell one point shy of hitting the over bet.
Overall, it’s been a decent year with the over/under bets, and certainly better than my game picks against my MMQB colleagues. But I won’t give up on my dream of going 5–0 with over/under total bets in the regular season.
With two weeks left before the playoffs, here are the five best over/under bets for Week 17 (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).
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1. Raiders (7–8) at Colts (8–7)
The Indianapolis Colts are coming off one of their worst performances of the season in the 29–10 road loss against the Atlanta Falcons. Now the Colts have to deal with the Las Vegas Raiders’ stout defense to keep their postseason hopes alive, but they tend to play better at home, especially the offense. Indianapolis has scored at least 20 points in all their home games so far this season, including the 30 unanswered points during the Week 15 victory vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders have had a few eventful weeks, from being shutout in the 3–0 loss to the Minnesota Vikings to dropping 63 points on the Los Angeles Chargers to upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs on the road with two defensive touchdowns. Expect the Raiders to hover around 27.6 points—that’s their points average from the past three games. Interim coach Antonio Pierce has the Raiders’ offense in a groove with a productive rushing attack and decent play from rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell.
2. Saints (7–8) at Buccaneers (8–7)Over/Under: 42.5Prediction: Over
The red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers will put their four-game winning streak on the line against the struggling New Orleans Saints. Expect Baker Mayfield to be at his best, and not just because the Saints have been bad defensively, but because a win Sunday could make Tampa Bay the champions of the NFC South. Mayfield has thrown nine touchdowns compared to one interception during the Buccaneers’ four-game winning streak. The Saints’ defense had no answers for the Los Angeles Rams’ explosive offense last week. But New Orleans did manage 22 points and 319 passing yards from Derek Carr. The Buccaneers beat the Saints 26–9 in Week 4. Expect more points for Round 2 of this matchup.
3. Rams (8–7) at Giants (5–10)Over/Under: 44.5Prediction: Under
Taking the under here is a bold move because the Rams have scored 28 points or more in each of their past five games. Los Angeles can certainly drop another 30 points on the five-win New York Giants, who allowed 33 points to the Philadelphia Eagles on Christmas. But the Rams have shown their inexperience in the past two weeks by failing to close out the Washington Commanders and Saints at home after jumping out to sizable leads. They have many first- and second-year players outside of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald. Something tells me they might have a sluggish road performance after the flight across the country and could overlook an inferior opponent. Not saying the Giants will pull off the upset, but the Rams might find themselves in a low-scoring, one-possession game by the fourth quarter. And the Giants will likely do their part for this under bet after struggling the past two weeks against the Eagles and Saints.
4. Patriots (4–11) at Bills (9–6)
The New England Patriots recorded an upset victory against the Buffalo Bills in a Week 7 matchup that finished with 54 total points. New England has played better offensively since Bailey Zappe took over as the starting quarterback nearly a month ago. The Patriots are 2–1 the past three weeks and are averaging 21.3 points per game during that span. The Patriots can certainly drop another 20 points on a Bills’ defense that had its hands full against Easton Stick’s Chargers in a 24–22 victory last week. The Bills have been inconsistent offensively most of the season, but they’re capable of scoring 30 points on any given week.
5. Bengals (8–7) at Chiefs (9–6)Over/Under: 44.5Prediction: Under
The Chiefs have shown no signs of a team on the verge of turning a corner offensively, despite having Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Kansas City has been held under 20 points in four of its past six games. The Cincinnati Bengals have a pedestrian defense, but this is more about the Chiefs creating self-inflicted mistakes, such as dropped passes and killer turnovers. Jake Browning struggled in the Bengals’ 34–11 loss against the Steelers, which included three interceptions from Joe Burrow’s backup. The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been as dominant as it was in the first half of the season, but it remains one of the best units in the league.
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