We’re gearing up for a wild NBA offseason, and the drama officially begins in earnest Wednesday night with the first round of the NBA draft. From uncertainty around some of the top prospects in the class to potential draft night trades, it should be an action-packed evening that could shape the future of the league for years to come.
What are the biggest storylines to monitor during Wednesday’s first round? Here’s a look at what to watch:
Don’t expect surprises at the top
While we can never rule out draft night drama, don’t expect much of it with the first two picks. The Dallas Mavericks are locked in on selecting Cooper Flagg, the consensus No. 1 prospect in the draft that gives Dallas a potential future star to build around once its championship window with Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving closes. And at No. 2, San Antonio seems set on keeping its pick and adding Dylan Harper to a backcourt that already features De’Aaron Fox and Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. Harper is the best player available and a potential long-term pick-and-roll partner with Victor Wembanyama should San Antonio elect not to re-sign Fox in 2026 free agency. At worst, Harper is an enticing trade chip to use in future deals as the Spurs look to maximize their time with Wembanyama on an affordable deal.
Ace Bailey will shape the top 10
The draft’s most interesting man is Rutgers product Ace Bailey. Bailey’s game is polarizing among NBA executives, as he wows at times with his preternatural shotmaking ability and scoring instincts but leaves plenty to be desired from a decision-making standpoint and struggles to create separation off the dribble. Further complicating matters is his strange predraft process, orchestrated by agent Omar Cooper. Cooper, who founded the AOT AAU program in Atlanta, doesn’t currently represent any other NBA players, per RealGM’s database. Bailey has yet to work out for a single NBA team, making him the lone domestic prospect not to do so. There’s a belief in some NBA circles that Cooper is working to ensure Bailey lands in what they view as a more advantageous situation with an early path to stardom, but there’s plenty of risk involved in that … especially if those targeted teams choose not to trade up to pick Bailey in the top four, as Bailey’s camp would prefer.
Bailey is still believed to be in play for the Philadephia 76ers at No. 3, which is likely the start of his range. For now though, is projecting Baylor product VJ Edgecombe to land in Philadelphia at No. 3, giving the Sixers a more game-ready piece to add to an older core that wants to contend. At No. 4, Charlotte seems more locked in on game-ready shooters like Kon Knueppel and Tre Johnson, but could be a prime candidate to move down a few spots for a team like Washington (No. 6), New Orleans (No. 7) or Brooklyn (No. 8) to move up above Utah to land Bailey. Without trade activity, Washington at No. 6 seems like his floor and a more desired destination for the Bailey camp than Utah, though the Jazz could pick him anyway as a big talent swing to add to their young core.
Polarizing players worth tracking
Bailey’s the most buzzy name with draft night uncertainty, but he’s hardly the only one. Two other potential lottery picks with fairly wide ranges appear to be Maryland’s Derik Queen and Illinois’s Kasparas Jakucionis. Queen’s diverse offensive skill set has made him an intriguing option as early as the back half of the top 10, but other teams worry about his fitness, mobility defensively and maturity. Meanwhile, Jakucionis had a season filled with highs and lows at Illinois, struggling at times with turnovers but possessing the combination of size, feel and shotmaking ability that could make him the third point guard off the board after Harper and Jeremiah Fears. It seems doubtful either would fall far out of the lottery, with teams in the late teens likely taking advantage of any draft-night slide.
Further down the draft board, the glut of wings that could come off the board in the teens and early 20s creates the possibility of at least one surprise slide. Two with wider ranges appear to be Cedric Coward and Will Riley. Coward is one of the best stories in the draft having risen from Division III to Washington State, but played just six games last season due to injury. Riley has plenty of skeptics because of his slender frame and unorthodox game, though others love his shooting ability and feel.
Trade activity to monitor
Even ignoring the potential for a trade likely involving the chance to draft Bailey, there have already been plenty of trades impacting the first round and it won’t be a surprise if there’s a flurry of additional activity Wednesday. As ESPN’s Jonathan Givony reported Tuesday, Oklahoma City is a team to watch in the trade market as it possesses a pair of first-rounders (No. 15 and No. 24) as well as a mid-second-round choice. The Thunder don’t really have room for two first-round picks on the roster next season, which makes some sort of movement likely. In one direction, they could package those two picks and potentially other assets to target a move up the board into the back end of the lottery. In the other, the Thunder could dump the latter first-round pick in exchange for future draft capital or salary relief.
The other team whose trade maneuvers could shape the early part of the draft is Brooklyn, which now has a whopping five first-round picks (as well as the 36th pick early in the second round) to play with after snagging the Hawks’ No. 22 pick in the three-team Kristaps Porzingis deal. It seems unlikely that Brooklyn would use all five picks itself, either packaging them to move up (perhaps in a Bailey package?) or shipping out one to two of them for future assets. What value the later four first-rounders hold, all in the Nos. 19 to 27 range, remains to be seen.
Other teams with multiple picks and the potential to attempt to move up include New Orleans (No. 7 and No. 23), Phoenix (No. 10 and No. 29), Washington (No. 6 and No. 18), San Antonio (No. 2 and No. 14). With the league poised for a ton of trade activity this summer, expect lots of movement throughout the draft.
How the new CBA impacts the first round
It could easily be argued that the value of draft picks, particularly outside of the lottery, has never been higher. With the league’s collective bargaining agreement and specifically the much-discussed second apron of the luxury tax making it very difficult for teams to reshape their rosters, finding cost-controlled young players that can be effective rotation players early in their careers is huge. Some players that could fit this mold: Florida star Walter Clayton Jr., Colorado State wing Nique Clifford and a handful of game-ready bigs like Maxime Raynaud (Stanford), Ryan Kalkbrenner (Creighton) and Johni Broome (Auburn).
