The College Football Playoff rankings that arrive before Selection Sunday may ultimately be inconsequential—but they sure are ripe for setting agendas and affirming biases. That proved to be the case this week with the conversation surrounding the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers, who are positioned tenuously above a crop of two-loss SEC teams with two weeks to play.
First-year coach Curt Cignetti has taken a group laden with transfers to the upper echelon of the Big Ten, but Indiana has come under fire—at least from its detractors—over a lackluster strength of schedule. And there’s truth to that argument. But it can finally be put to bed, at least in part, this weekend.
Indiana will get put to the test in Columbus this weekend against the Ohio State Buckeyes in a top-five battle. What a loss means for each team isn’t what the college football watchability rankings are for—that’s up to the committee to decide. However, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a better game to tune in to in Week 13, given the stakes for both sides and the possibility of legitimizing this season’s college football Cinderella.
Apart from the midday matchup between the Hoosiers and Buckeyes, two of the Big 12 leaders will duel in the desert, while the Colorado Buffaloes face one of the other hottest teams in the conference. Plus, the troops go marching into Yankee Stadium as the Army Black Knights try to shake up the Group of 5 playoff race against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Here’s what else to keep your eyes on this weekend in college football:
8. No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions (9–1) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (6–4)
While the conversation around strength of schedule in the Big Ten has hovered over Indiana, Penn State has been able to float under the radar. The Nittany Lions already posted their loss to the Buckeyes and can also point to a win over No. 25 Illinois to help bolster their case. But their résumé isn’t exactly tidy, with a seven-point win over the Bowling Green Falcons and an escape in overtime against the USC Trojans, and the eye tests suggest they’re susceptible to a trap game—like the one on the docket this Saturday.
P.J. Fleck continues to efficiently row the boat at Minnesota, having earned bowl eligibility for the fourth season in a row. Apart from a COVID-affected 2020 season, the Golden Gophers have gone bowling in every other season since Fleck’s first year on campus. This season’s Minnesota team has been quietly frisky, finding a slot in with the best of the rest in a middling Big Ten.
Penn State presents Fleck with his team’s biggest challenge of the year, but the Golden Gophers have lost only one game this season by more than one score. This tilt shapes up to be close, and if Minnesota running back Darius Taylor can find some sort of success against Penn State’s top-five defense, the Nittany Lions could be on red alert.
7. No. 13 SMU Mustangs (9–1) at Virginia Cavaliers (5–5)
Oregon became the first team in the country this season to switch conferences and instantly make the title game in its new league. SMU can accomplish the same feat with a win in Charlottesville, Va., on Saturday, completing an unlikely rise from the Group of 5 to the playoff precipice.
Wins against the Pittsburgh Panthers and Boston College Eagles have settled the Mustangs in November after a pre-Halloween scare against the Duke Blue Devils. Quarterback Kevin Jennings and running back Brashard Smith have been exceptional, combining for more than 400 total yards in each of SMU’s last three games.
Awaiting the Mustangs is a rather perplexing Cavaliers team that’s dropped four of their last five games after a 4–1 start. The one win for UVA in that stretch was Pitt, a game that just about sealed the Panthers’ fate of missing out on the chance to play for the ACC title. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Colandrea has big-play potential, but also struggles to protect the football, throwing 11 interceptions and taking 30 sacks.
So long as SMU’s run defense can hold Virginia’s extensive backfield in check, the Mustangs will play for a league title in two weeks.
6. No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones (8–2) at Utah Utes (4–6)
After consecutive losses to the Texas Tech Red Raiders and at the Kansas Jayhawks, Iowa State’s dream of backdooring the playoff seemed dead. The Cyclones got back on track vs. the Cincinnati Bearcats, and the BYU Cougars also got clipped by the Jayhawks, leaving the door open in the country’s most crowded conference.
Iowa State can no longer control its destiny with games against Utah and the Kansas State Wildcats remaining. But if the Big 12 has shown anything this season, it’s that any of the top teams are susceptible, be it BYU, Colorado or Arizona State in this case.
Matt Campbell’s defense looked far better than it had in recent weeks against the Bearcats and faces another favorable matchup against Utah, which hasn’t scored more than 24 points since Sept. 14. The Utes are reeling, capping a six-game losing streak with a 49–24 loss in Boulder, Colo., to the playoff-hopeful Buffaloes.
The Big 12 probably won’t be decided this week, but if Iowa State slips up at Utah, what started as a promising season will come to an abrupt end.
5. No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels (8–2) at Florida Gators (5–5)
The SEC vs. everybody discourse reached a fever pitch earlier this week, and most of the conference won’t have a chance to back it up on the field. The South Carolina Gamecocks play the Wofford Terriers; the Tennessee Volunteers take on the UTEP Miners; and the Georgia Bulldogs face the UMass Minutemen in what’s come to be defined as the conference’s tune-up weekend in preparation for rivalry week.
Ole Miss, on the other hand, struts into the Swamp for a meeting with a seemingly improved Florida team. Lane Kiffin’s Rebels have been susceptible to a head-scratcher (see: Kentucky), and there’s reason to think this game presents a similar challenge. A third loss would play Ole Miss out of the SEC championship race and the at-large playoff discussion.
Gators freshman quarterback DJ Lagway had one of the best games of his career in last week’s upset of the LSU Tigers. He also got plenty of help from his defense, which tallied seven sacks. Should Lagway progress and the defense get pressure on Jaxson Dart, this game could end up tight in the fourth quarter.
As the Bill Parcells saying goes: You are what your record says you are. That still doesn’t feel like the case for Kansas, even after back-to-back wins over ranked teams in Iowa State and BYU.
What’s even more impressive is the Jayhawks’ ability to win in different ways. Star quarterback Jalon Daniels and the offense put 45 points on the Cyclones to hold on in a shootout. The next week in Provo, Utah, the defense stifled the Cougars’ offense, allowing just 13 points in a grind-it-out victory. Those results just mean that Kansas is playing its best football at the right time and still has a chance to make a bowl game, while delivering plenty of chaos along the way.
To beat Colorado, the Jayhawks will need to be more sound in all facets. The Buffs have also looked the sharpest that they have in the Deion Sanders era, scoring 34 points or more in each victory on their current four-game win streak. Colorado’s task is simple: Win and you’re into the Big 12 championship game. Kansas is the final barrier—sorry, Oklahoma State—in the way.
3. No. 19 Army Black Knights (9–0) at No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9–1)
Army’s unexpected run to an undefeated record now finally meets an inflection point. The Fighting Irish will meet the Black Knights at Yankee Stadium, finally giving the latter an opponent outside of the run-of-the-mill AAC fare.
What Army has done to those opponents is still notable. The Black Knights have allowed more than 14 points only once in 10 games. Mobile quarterback Bryson Daily has emerged as an aficionado at operating the option offense by combining for 28 touchdowns, with 21 on the ground. It’s a rare feel-good story in college football and one that enters a new tier of interest with a win Saturday.
Notre Dame also seems to have skirted by most of the playoff ranking cynicism after a September loss at home to the Northern Illinois Huskies, but that’s at least in part due to how dominant the Irish have been down the back half of the season. Since a seven-point win over the Louisville Cardinals, Notre Dame’s average margin of victory has been 33.4 points. Quarterback Riley Leonard has been exactly the player the Irish were hoping they’d get in the transfer portal during that five-game stretch, combining for 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
So Army has to win to have any shot at overtaking the Boise State Broncos in the Group of 5 pecking order. Notre Dame can’t afford a loss with the Northern Illinois blemish and the inability to get an automatic bid. Game on.
2. No. 14 BYU Cougars (9–1) at No. 21 Arizona State Sun Devils (8–2)
Tempe, Ariz., hosts the Big 12 showcase of the week as the Sun Devils seek to deliver another blow to BYU’s magical season. Arizona State wasn’t exactly a trendy pick to be in a position to make noise this late in the season after Kenny Dillingham’s program was selected last in the Big 12 media preseason poll. Yet, here the Sun Devils stand with a chance to make their own destiny.
Standout running back Cam Skattebo (1,074 yards, 11 touchdowns) is back from injury and managed a full workload last week, even if it wasn’t his most productive outing. His versatility as a runner and pass catcher will be a lot for BYU’s Big 12-best defense to handle, but the Cougars risk seeing it all come apart with a loss. A win head-to-head would vault Arizona State over BYU and take control out of the Cougars’ hands.
BYU’s defense wasn’t the issue in last week’s 17–13 loss to Kansas. However, an ill-timed interception from quarterback Jake Retzlaff on the Jayhawks’ 5-yard line sank a promising drive at the end of the first half. Self-inflicted mistakes are backbreakers at this point in the season, and none more so than when a championship game spot is on the line.
1. No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers (10–0) at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (9–1)
Given that The Game between Ohio State and Michigan next week lacks the same stakes than it has in recent years, this represents the last major Big Ten regular-season tilt. Just as we all predicted—Cignetti’s band of transfer Hoosiers heads to Columbus with a chance to seal their playoff fate.
Indiana has done what all great teams do against inferior opponents: demolish them. Through the first nine games, the Hoosiers looked untested and unfazed, until a stumble in the second half against Michigan two weeks ago. Carrying a 17–3 lead into halftime, the IU offense began the third quarter with an uncharacteristic—and horrendous—interception from the normally steady-handed Kurtis Rourke. The Wolverines’ ineptitude on offense wasn’t able to give the Hoosiers anything more than a fright, but it was the kind of scare that put cracks into Indiana’s invincibility complex.
Ohio State has cruised since tight wins over the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Penn State, but the Buckeyes haven’t looked unbeatable either. The Buckeyes offensive line was already hanging on by a thread and that was before it lost starting center Seth McLaughlin to a torn Achilles in practice Tuesday. Running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson can make up for a lot of holes, but the situation is starting to get untenable in Columbus.
The glory of a game like this is that it can solve a lot of the playoff puzzle. Regardless of the result, debates will rage on, arguments will be made and someone will be left unhappy. But for at least a few hours on Saturday, everyone should be able to sit back and enjoy a meeting between two of the best teams in the country.
