With only four weeks left in the NFL regular season, the playoff picture is only growing more muddled.
Of the 32 teams, 24 are either currently in a playoff spot or within one game of the final seed. While parity is the NFL’s favorite buzzword, it’s also the operative word this season.
This weekend, we get a tripleheader on Saturday, 11 games on Sunday and a Monday nighter with two teams trying to stop a spiral.
Of all the games, only the Raiders-Chargers tilt on Thursday was without any real playoff implications.
For the remaining 15 games, here’s the matchup to watch in each:
Minnesota Vikings (7–6) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (7–6)
Key matchup: Bengals’ playmakers vs. Vikings’ defense
Cincinnati doesn’t have Joe Burrow, but Jake Browning has stepped in and stepped up. Over the last two weeks, Browning is averaging more than 300 passing yards, with plenty of help from his weapons. On the year, the Bengals rank third in yards after the catch, only behind the Chiefs and Dolphins.
As for the Vikings, that’s been a problem for their defense. Minnesota has allowed the fifth-most passing yardage after the catch (1,683), largely because it has the highest blitz rate in football, taking tacklers out of the picture.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7–6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7–6)
Key matchup: Colts’ blitz rate vs. Mitchell Trubisky
Indianapolis does a good job of bringing the opposing quarterback down with 42 sacks, ranking second-best in football. However, the Colts almost never blitz. They only bring extra rushers on 16.1% of snaps, lowest in the league.
This could be a problem for Trubisky, who consistently throws into coverage. When pressured, he’s also vulnerable for turnovers. This could be a bad combination on Saturday afternoon.
Denver Broncos (7–6) vs. Detroit Lions (9–4)
Key matchup: Lions’ rushing attack vs. Broncos’ run defense
Detroit has one of the best rushing tandems in football with veteran David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. The result has been 4.7 yards per carry, tied for third-best in the NFL.
Conversely, the Broncos have struggled to shut down the run. Denver is dead last in the metric, permitting 5.1 yards per carry against.
Chicago Bears (5–8) vs. Cleveland Browns (8–5)
Key matchup: Browns’ pressure rate vs. Bears’ offensive line
Cleveland has won eight games largely because of its ability to shut down opposing offenses with a wicked pass rush and stifling coverage on the back end.
The Browns could win their ninth game with the same formula. Cleveland ranks third with a pressure rate of 26.8%, while the Bears permit pressure on 24.3% of dropbacks, the seventh-worst rate in football.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6–7) vs. Green Bay Packers (6–7)
Key matchup: Packers’ third-down offense vs. Buccaneers’ defense
The Packers had been rolling with three straight wins before getting tripped up by Tommy DeVito and the Giants on Monday. The trick for bouncing back can be found on third down, where Green Bay’s offense ranks sixth at 43.4%.
In direct contrast, the Buccaneers have struggled to get off the field defensively, ranking tied for 26th on third down at a 42% conversion rate.
Houston Texans (7–6) vs. Tennessee Titans (5–8)
Key matchup: Texans’ ball control vs. Titans’ defense
Tennessee’s defense has been leaky in a litany of areas at times, specifically against the pass. But another problem has been forcing turnovers, as the Titans have only taken the ball away 11 times. Only the one-win Panthers have fewer.
Additionally, the Texans have been excellent at holding onto the ball. Houston has committed 11 turnovers, tied for fewest in the NFL.
