There's no getting around the fact that the 2025 edition of the Road to 272 Bets has gotten off to a nightmarish start, but if you're going to have a cold streak betting on the NFL, it's best to get it out of the way early. There's still plenty of time to make up for it, so let's get the momentum going in the right direction in Week 4.
As always, I'll follow the rules I laid out in Week 1. I have my plays locked in for all 16 NFL Week 4 games, so let's jump into them.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
Road to 272 Bets Week 3 Record6-10 (-4.46 units)Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record19-28-1 (-9.62 units)NFL Week 4 Best Bets for Every GameSeahawks vs. Cardinals Prediction
The Arizona Cardinals have gotten off to a respectable start to their 2025 season, beating the Saints and Panthers and then barely losing to the San Francisco 49ers. With that being said, I'm not sold on this team, and I think they're far worse than their public perception. Heading into Week 4, they rank 19th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -0.1. They're also in the middle of the pack in most advanced metrics, including ranking 13th in both EPA per play and opponent per play. While those numbers don't look terrible, let's remember they've had one of the easiest schedules to start the season, with games against the Panthers and Saints.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks' stock has risen lately. They're seventh in the league in Net Yards per Play (+0.9) and 10th in opponent EPA per play. Sam Darnold has also been impressive. I expected little of him this season, but he's now fifth in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite behind only Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, and Josh Allen.
Give me the Seahawks to pull off the slight upset on Thursday night.
Vikings vs. Steelers Prediction
The Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Week 4 showdown is set to take place in the first game in Europe of the season. The Vikings are in a huge sell-high spot after their dominant win against the Cincinnati Bengals. I'm not buying in on them quite yet, and while Carson Wentz was serviceable in that game, I'm convinced he's going to have a horrific performance sooner rather than later.
Even with a 2-1 record, the Vikings are 28th in the NFL in EPA per play. Their numbers aren't quite as good as their public percentage, so with this being a neutral field game, I won't hesitate to take the point with the Steelers. I'm still trying to figure out just how good this Pittsburgh team is, but Aaron Rodgers has been solid at quarterback, and Mike Tomlin will have a solid game plan against a banged-up Vikings squad.
Chargers vs. Giants Prediction
It has not yet been announced who will be the quarterback for the Giants in Week 4, and if it still ends up being Russell Wilson, we have no option other than to lay the points with the Chargers. The Giants' offense is completely toothless against any defense not named the Dallas Cowboys with Wilson at quarterback.
Meanwhile, the Chargers have been one of the most impressive teams in the league so far this season. They're 11th in EPA per play, seventh in success rate, fourth in opponent EPA per play, and what might be most impressive is they're first in opponent success rate. Teams have scored a touchdown on just 25% of red zone trips against them, which is terrible news for the Giants. It will be hard for the Giants to cover this spread if they're consistently being held to field goals.
The Giants' defense was supposed to be their strength, but they rank 29th in opponent EPA and 31st in opponent success rate through the first three weeks. Not a good sign for Giants faithful.
Panthers vs. Patriots Prediction
The Patriots are in a great buy-low spot right now. This team is 1-2, but both their losses have been single-score games. What's more important is their underlying metrics. They rank 15th in EPA per play and 21st in Net Yards per Play (-0.4). While those numbers certainly don't look great, I don't think the Panthers are a competitive team after one strong win against the Falcons. They were still outgained in that performance and now enter Week 4 ranking 30th in Net Yards per Play (-1.4) and 22nd in EPA per Play.
Few people are as high on the Patriots as they were in the offseason, but after a slow start, now is the time to buy low on them. They're a step above the Panthers and will prove that on Sunday.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The Philadelphia Eagles may be the defending Super Bowl champions and are off to a 3-0 start to the season, but there are some signs that Eagles fans should be concerned about. The Eagles rank 27th in the league in Net Yards per Play at -0.9. That's one spot below the Raiders and one spot above the Bears. Their offense is 12th in EPA per Play and 18th in opponent EPA per play. Not to say they can't turn things around, but I now believe they're overrated in the betting market.
The most important factor in this game is the stylistic matchup. We all know the Eagles live and die by running the football, running the ball on 54.1% of their plays, which ranks first in the league. Now, they have to take on a Buccaneers team that ranks fifth in opponent yards per carry (3.6), first in opponent Rush EPA, and second in opponent Rush Success Rate.
That's enough for me to take the field goal with the Buccaneers on their home field.
Commanders vs. Falcons Prediction
The Falcons' 30-0 loss to the Panthers might have been the least lopsided 30-point win in NFL history. In fact, the Falcons significantly outgained the Panthers all game, averaging +0.9 more yards per play. Poor special teams play and turnovers led to the Panthers' dominant win, but let's not completely count out the Falcons because of this loss.
The Falcons enter Week 4 ranking seventh in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+0.8), and their defense still ranks fifth in opponent EPA per play.
The Commanders will likely still be without Jayden Daniels, so it's crazy to me they're this big of favorites on the road against a Falcons team that has the talent they have on their roster. Keep the points, I'll take the Falcons on the moneyline.
Browns vs. Lions Prediction
The Cleveland Browns have managed to hang on against two of their three opponents in terms of covering the spread, but I still think they're one of the worst teams in the league. Their offense is atrocious, ranking 29th in success rate and 30th in EPA per play. They're going to have to do better than that to keep up with the elite Lions offense, especially with the Browns playing on the road.
I think Detroit runs away with this one in impressive fashion.
Titans vs. Texans Prediction
The Houston Texans are 0-3 to start the year, and their offense has been atrocious, but that doesn't mean they can't win against the Tennessee Titans, who are somehow even worse. The Cam Ward era has gotten off on the wrong foot, to put things lightly. The Titans rank dead last in the NFL in net yards per play at -2.5, which is -1.1 worse than the next-worst team. They also rank 31st in EPA per play, 31st in success rate, 30th in opponent EPA per play, and 29th in opponent EPA per play. It would be tough to have a worse first three weeks from any comparable metric than what the Titans have done.
The Titans have allowed 5.0 sacks per game, and now they have to take on one of the better pass rushes in the NFL, in the Texans. Things won't get easier for Cam Ward and Co. in Houston.
The Texans may be 0-3, but their metrics are middle of the pack, including Net Yards per Play, where they rank 17th at +0.1. They are a league above the Titans and will prove that on Sunday.
Saints vs. Bills Prediction
There's a chance this game ends up being the biggest spread of the entire season, but that's not going to scare me away from laying the points on this one. This very well might be the worst team in the league on the road against the best team.
After two straight weeks of being relatively in the game, the Saints showed their true colors in Week 3 when they were completely steamrolled by the Seattle Seahawks. Their road trip now heads to Buffalo, the team that leads the league in EPA per play.
There's nothing the Saints can do to remain competitive in this game with Spencer Rattle as their quarterback. Unless the Bills have an F performance, they'll run away with this one.
Colts vs. Rams Prediction
It's time for us football fans to start believing in the Colts. Sure, a three-game sample size is still small, but they've been so dominant offensively that it's hard to ignore at this point. Their metrics are right up there with the Ravens and Bills, in their own category compared to the rest of the NFL.
The Colts also rank second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.6, one spot above their Week 4 opponent, the Los Angeles Rams. In terms of advanced metrics, their slightly better offensively than the Rams, but Los Angeles has a small defensive advantage.
Any team with these close of numbers shouldn't have a spread north of a field goal. These odds are leftovers of offseason projections of both clubs. If you think you've seen enough of the Colts to consider them a legitimately good football team, there's a clear answer for which side you should back.
Jaguars vs. 49ers Prediction
The San Francisco 49ers keep squeaking by their opponents, which might make you think they're on the brink of a losing streak, but their underlying metrics say they should be winning these games by a wider margin. They're fifth in the league in Net Yards per Play (+1.0), and Mac Jones has done a serviceable job in place of Brock Purdy.
The Jaguars are a middling team with an offense that still has plenty of question marks. Trevor Lawrence is not living up to expectations, and he now ranks 30th in the NFL in EPA+CPOE amongst starting quarterbacks. Only Cam Ward, Michael Penix Jr., and J.J. McCarthy rank worse than the Jaguars QB.
There will soon be a game where all of the Jaguars' flaws come to light and I think this is that time.
Ravens vs. Chiefs Prediction
This bet is as simple and straightforward as it gets. The Ravens are the best team in the NFL, and it's not particularly close. Meanwhile, the Chiefs look like a shell of their former selves. Sure, they'll win and cover when they face a far inferior opponent like the Giants, but they can't hang with the big boys this season. The Chiefs' defense isn't what it used to be, and they now rank 22nd in opponent EPA per play and 24th in opponent success rate. Offensively, until their receiving core gets healthy, they're going to struggle to be consistent and explosive.
I was surprised when I saw the spread for this game was just a field goal. Baltimore is too dynamic and too talented not to win by margin against the Chiefs in this one.
Bears vs. Raiders Prediction
The Bears and Raiders are comparable in a lot of ways, and on a neutral field, I'd set the game as a pick'em. That means with this being a home game for Las Vegas, I'll back the Raiders as extremely small underdogs at -105 on the moneyline.
Geno Smith hasn't had his best stuff the past two weeks, but I have to think he can do damage against a Bears' secondary that ranks 24th in opponent dropback EPA, 26th in opponent dropback success rate, and 28th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 8.0 yards per throw.
When looking at general metrics between these two teams, there's little to separate them. Even Geno Smith and Caleb Williams rank right next to each other, 18th and 19th, in EPA+CPOE composite.
I'll back the Raiders in this one.
Packers vs. Cowboys Prediction
The Cowboys' secondary might be the worst I've ever seen at the NFL level. The Cowboys need to score on almost every drive if they want to cover a spread, let alone win outright. The Dallas defense ranks 31st in opponent dropback EPA, 27th in opponent dropback success rate, and last in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 9.4 yards per pass attempt, the most in the league by 0.8 yards. Now, they have to slow down one of the better quarterbacks in the league in Jordan Love.
If the Cowboys allow Russel Wilson to throw for 450 yards and Caleb Williams to throw for 298 yards, just imagine what Love and the Packers offense can do. Not to mention, the Packers as a whole lead the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.7 while ranking third in opponent EPA per play and second in opponent success rate. Don't be swayed by their tough loss against the Browns last week. The Packers should steamroll the Cowboys in this game.
Jets vs. Dolphins Prediction
There's little to separate these two 0-3 teams. They've both had disastrous starts to their season. The Jets have been better defensively, while the Dolphins have been better offensively, but as a whole, this is an AFC East matchup to forget. They both have a net yards per play of -0.7, rank 23rd and 24th in EPA per play, and 28th and 32nd in opponent EPA per play. Despite all of that, the Dolphins are set as 2.5-point home favorites.
In this true coin flip of a divisional game, I'll take the Jets on the moneyline as an underdog and hope things break their way. The apparent implosion of the Dolphins' locker room should work in our favor with Aaron Glenn and the Jets looking like they're at least building towards something.
Bengals vs. Broncos Prediction
I was high on Jake Browning and the Bengals last week, and they let me down. I didn't give enough credit to how a good defense like the Vikings can do to a backup quarterback and a poorly coached offense. Now, the Bengals find themselves in an extremely similar situation when they have to hit the road to take on arguably the best defense in the league. If the Vikings' secondary threw Browning for a loop, the Broncos' secondary can do exactly the same.
The Bengals now rank 31st in the league in Net Yards per Play at -1.4 while also ranking last in EPA per play and 21st in opponent EPA per play. We may need to start treating the Bengals as a bottom-five team in the league, and if that's true, the Broncos are the clear side to back in this one, especially on their home field.
