It was a rough divisional round for the Road to Super Bowl 59, going 2-5-1 for -3.21 units to bring our playoff record to 8-11-1 for -2.54 units.
We move on to the Championship round of the NFL Playoffs and I'm tossing in an extra bet for each game. Instead of doing a play on the side or total and a player prop for each game like I've been doing so far in the postseason, I'm going to do a play on the side or total and a player prop for each team in both games. That will make six total bets for this Sunday's action.
Let's dive into them.
NFL Championship Round Best Bets for Each GameCommanders vs. Eagles Prediction
If you were to break down this bet from a pure analytics standpoint, there are plenty of reasons to like the Eagles. They far outrank the Commanders in Net Yards per Play and virtually every single defensive statistic you can find. I'm sure you'll hear all week about how the Commanders have struggled to stop the run and the Eagles will be able to power through them on the ground.
In most cases, I would be laying the points with the Eagles but at this point I simply can't look past Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' offense. Daniels has been the best rookie quarterback in the history of the sport and may now be the best quarterback in the NFC. His ability to use his legs to his advantage while also remaining calm in the pocket is something I rarely see from a player at his position.
The Commanders also seem to have the Chiefs-esque factor of having things go their way in big moments and never shooting themselves in the foot, something the Eagles have done continuously this season including last week against the Rams.
The Commanders may not win this game. Their defensive issues may prove too much to pull off another upset. With that being said, I can't envision this being a blowout in favor of Philadelphia. I'll take the points with the 'dog.
Commanders Player Prop
No matter how you think this game is going to go, almost all paths lead to Jayden Daniels racking up completions in this game. The only outcome I see that could hurt this prop is if the Commanders win in a blowout, leading to the Commanders sticking to the run game in the second half.
If the Eagles, who are significant favorites, take an early lead, the Commanders will have to throw the ball to play catch-up. If it's a close game, the Commanders are likely going to stick to their bread and butter and put the ball in their star rookie's hands. Daniels has gone over this number in eight straight games if you take away Week 18 against the Cowboys when he was taken out of the game in the second half to keep him rested.
Eagles Player Prop
It seems like blasphemy to bet the UNDER on a Saquon Barkley rushing yards total, but as bettors, we need to think about these wagers in terms of probability and this number has gotten out of control. I don't remember if I've ever seen a player have a rushing yards total this high so while I do think Barkley will have a good performance, getting more than 127 yards on the ground has a less than 50% chance of happening.
The Eagles have racked up wins by sticking to their ground game, getting an early lead, and then riding their run game until the final whistle. I don't think that strategy is going to work against an elite offense like the Commanders. Instead, they're going to have to go to the air to try to keep pace with Jayden Daniels and Co.
Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction
I have been saying all season the Chiefs haven't been as good as their record and calling them "frauds," but it's time to wave the white flag. I was wrong. Sometimes, you need to look past some of the numbers and while one side may have better metrics in certain areas, the Chiefs find ways to win big games time and time again. Remember, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is insanity. I will no longer be doing that, it's time to join the dark side.
Not only that, but I have zero faith in the Bills' defense. I bet against them last week due to how bad their defensive numbers are, but they were saved by the Ravens coughing up the ball three teams and the Bills were still a dropped two-point conversion away from having the game tied late despite sporting a +3 turnover differential.
The Buffalo defense has been one of the worst in the NFL in the second half of the season, including ranking 22nd in opponent success rate and 24th in opponent dropback EPA since Week 10. The Chiefs will hand the Bills yet another postseason loss.
Bills Player Prop
Josh Allen averaged 37.31 rushing yards per regular season game, but in the playoffs he relies on his legs a lot more, averaging 52.41 rushing yards per postseason start. Those numbers get even more exaggerated when he faces the Chiefs specifically. In eight games against Kansas City in both the regular season and postseason, he averages 56 rushing yards per game against them.
That's 10 yards higher than his set total for this game. This seems like a home run bet to me.
Chiefs Player Prop
Xavier Worthy has become the primary target for Patrick Mahomes in recent weeks and I don't think the market has correctly adjusted when it comes to his receptions total. He saw 9+ targets in his last three regular season starts and then hauled in five receptions on six targets against the Texans last week.
When the Chiefs acquired DeAndre Hopkins, they started to use him as their primary receiver, but have since learned that Worthy is the better option and can attack defenses in several different ways. I'll continue to ride on Sunday.
